Photovoltaic installed capacity growth aluminum and tin demand will increase [agency review]

In 2021, China successively issued policy documents such as "implementation opinions on speeding up the Transformation and Development of Rural Energy to help Rural Revitalization", "Action Plan for innovative Development of Intelligent Photovoltaic Industry (2021-2025)" and "guidance on promoting the High-quality Development of Central Enterprises and doing a good job in carbon neutralization". The photovoltaic industry centralized and distributed dual-drive development path is determined, and the county-wide distributed and large-scale photovoltaic bases advance together. It will become the two main lines of photovoltaic development in 2022, setting the policy tone for the growth of photovoltaic industry in 2022.

The newly installed capacity of photovoltaic will increase greatly.

In 2021, due to the tight supply of related materials and rising costs of photovoltaic equipment, the domestic photovoltaic demand is suppressed and the new installed capacity is lower than expected. however, under the influence of wind power and photovoltaic base projects, county-wide policies, capacity release of main and auxiliary materials and reduced costs in 2022, the new installed capacity of photovoltaic is expected to increase significantly. The author predicts that in 2022, the total installed capacity of domestic photovoltaic will reach about 70GW~90GW, of which household, industrial and commercial and other distributed projects contribute more than half of the total installed capacity.

From 2022 to 2030, the global photovoltaic installed power is expected to continue to be strong. From the perspective of the United States, the U.S. Department of Energy said that the new installed capacity of the United States will reach more than 30GW from 2022 to 2025. The (IEA) of the International Energy Agency predicts that the renewable energy capacity of the United States will grow by 65 percent by 2026, more than 200GW, of which 3Compact 4 will come from the photovoltaic industry.

In addition, at the end of October 2021, the U.S. House of Representatives passed a bill that plans to spend $555 billion to support clean energy development, of which $320 billion will be used as a tax credit; on November 16, 2021, the United States International Trade Court formally announced the resumption of tariff exemption for double-sided components and a reduction in tariff rates. This means that double-sided solar modules can be imported into the United States without additional tariffs.

From the perspective of Europe, the new installed capacity of photovoltaic in Europe will reach 30GW in 2022, among which Germany plans to promote the installed capacity of photovoltaic on a large scale. By 2030, the installed capacity of photovoltaic in Germany is expected to increase by about 140GW~200GW. China Photovoltaic Industry Association predicts that in 2022, the new installed capacity of the world is expected to reach 225GW, pessimistic expectations can also reach 180GW. In the long run, the new installed capacity of photovoltaic will reach about 330GW in 2025.

The demand for non-ferrous metals is expected to increase.

The production of photovoltaic modules requires a series of non-silicon auxiliary materials. At present, common component accessories include interconnection bar, bus bar, toughened glass, glue film, back plate, aluminum alloy, silica gel, junction box.

From the cost point of view, the top five cost of auxiliary materials are frame, glass, plastic film, backplane and welding tape. Among them, the frame accounts for the highest proportion of non-silicon cost, while glass, glue film and backplane are the core auxiliary materials of photovoltaic modules, which have an important impact on the final performance of the equipment.

Aluminum alloy is used in the two parts of photovoltaic module frame and bracket. aluminum frame mainly protects the edge of glass, strengthens the sealing performance of photovoltaic module and improves the overall mechanical strength of photovoltaic module. At the same time, it can facilitate the installation and transportation of photovoltaic module. Aluminum alloy bracket is generally used in distributed photovoltaic projects, because aluminum alloy has the advantages of corrosion resistance, light weight, beautiful and durable, but because of the high price and limited load, it can not be used in centralized photovoltaic power station projects.

Through the statistics and calculation of the main photovoltaic module enterprise products in the market, it is concluded that in terms of frame, the amount of aluminum used in the frame of each 1GW photovoltaic module frame is 9000 to 11000 tons; in terms of brackets, the amount of aluminum used in the construction of photovoltaic brackets per 1GW power station is about 19000 tons. The author estimates that in 2022, the aluminum demand of newly installed photovoltaic plants in China will reach 1.46 million to 1.85 million tons, driving the growth of domestic aluminum consumption by 1% to 2%. The new installed aluminum of photovoltaic in the world can reach 3.42 million ~ 4.28 million tons.

Photovoltaic welding strip, also known as tinned copper strip, is an important raw material in the welding process of photovoltaic modules. The quality of welding strip will directly affect the current collection efficiency of photovoltaic modules. According to the forecast data of the European Photovoltaic Association, the mainstream photovoltaic tape for 1GW photovoltaic modules is about 550t. According to the mainstream solder, the solder accounts for about 17% of the mass of the mainstream tape, then the tin used for 1GW photovoltaic modules is about 93.5t. The author predicts that in 2022, the tin demand for newly installed photovoltaic plants in China will reach about 6545 to 8415 tons, and tin consumption will increase by 1600 to 3500 tons annually, which is expected to boost domestic tin consumption by 1% to 2%. The new installed tin of photovoltaic in the world can reach 16000 ~ 20, 000 tons.

Copper tape is an important conductive and heat conducting raw material in photovoltaic modules, mainly photothermal copper tape and photovoltaic copper strip. In the photovoltaic module, the cable is used to connect the inverter and the grid-connected switch, while the MC4 connector of the module, the output terminal of the photovoltaic inverter and the terminal of the grid-connected switch are all made of copper.

In photovoltaic modules, junction boxes, transformers, copper wires and other components contain more copper. The new installed capacity of photovoltaic is about 5500 tons per GW, and the centralized and distributed copper consumption is about 2500 tons / GW and 3800 tons / GW. The author predicts that in 2022, the total installed copper demand of domestic photovoltaic will reach about 227000 ~ 290000 tons, an increase of 50 ~ 120000 tons compared with 2021, and the overall impact is not significant.

Author: Li Suheng